All eyes are focused on the monthly non-farm payroll number out this afternoon. No real bearish reaction in risk assets is foreseen. If you try to consider the possible data / reaction combinations almost none of them point to real trouble for risk bulls. We have seen over the last few days, stocks rallying, bonds selling off, risk currencies getting hit, and “risk commodities” like copper and crude oil rallying. If the NFP number comes in better-than-expected, stocks will likely continue higher, rates would continue to expand, and crude and copper would still likely see a little more upside. What happens if the NFP number comes out way worse-than-expected? Rates reverse lower, boosting major pairs like EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, but any real decline in stocks would likely be limited. What happens if the number comes in right around expectations? This is the most challenging scenario to game.
Open an Account
