Tag Archives: bull market

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Is There An End In Sight To The Six-Year Bull Run?

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:

Main Trading Event Of The Day: U.S. Unemployment Claims @ 12.30 GMT

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

Is There An End In Sight To The Six-Year Bull Run?

Are stocks telling us that a bear market is coming? That’s the opinion of some analysts who point out that bear markets ‘start with a whimper or a bang’. When it starts with a bang, the first clue will be a major break in the market that no one can explain. That will eventually be followed by a correction at which point everyone will be aware that something bad has happened. Should this happen, indexes will fall by double digits, investors will panic, and stocks will nosedive. But when a bear market starts with a whimper, it confuses nearly everyone. A meandering, volatile market is frustrating. At first, bulls will be hopeful that the market will keep going up, but eventually, the market tops out and retreats. Typically, a market making new highs is a healthy sign. In a looming bear market, new highs on lower volume is a warning sign. Right now, the strongest case for the bulls is the Fed but in the history of the stock market, no institution has been able to prevent a bear market. What might cause the market to snap is not certain - it could be an economic event, a geopolitical crisis, or a spike in interest rates. If it happens, nearly everyone will realise the market is in trouble at which point everyone will attempt to sell at once. Is that crunch time getting closer? No one knows but some believe a bear market is inevitable sooner rather than later.

The U.S. stock market closed broadly lower yesterday, as investors turned cautious amid a sell-off of small and high-growth companies. The benchmark S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated from record levels set on Tuesday. The S&P 500 finished 8.92 points, or 0.5% lower at 1,888.53. The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke its five-day winning streak and closed 101.47. points, or 0.6%, lower at 16,613.97. The Nasdaq Composite ended the day down 29.54 points, or 0.7%, at 4,100.63.

bear

Dollar Holds Losses Before Yellen Speaks Today

With Federal Reserve Janet Yellen due to speak later today and expectations that the central bank will maintain stimulatory policies, the U.S. dollar managed to hold losses against the majority of its 16 major peers after touching its lowest in almost a week versus the yen yesterday. Yellen told Congress last week the economy needs support. A report showed Japan’s gross domestic product expanded at the fastest pace in 2 1/2 years, damping bets for additional Bank of Japan easing. The euro remained higher versus the pound before figures that may indicate growth accelerated in the eurozone. The dollar slipped 0.1 percent to 101.83 yen after touching 101.66, the lowest level since May 9. It traded at $1.3718 per euro from $1.3715.

US Dollar

WTI Drops From Three-Week High; Brent Remains Steady

West Texas Intermediate slid from a three-week high after government data showed crude inventories expanded as production increased to a 28-year peak in the U.S. Brent was steady in London. Futures fell as much as 0.5 percent in New York, the first drop in four days. Crude stockpiles rose to a near-record last week as output climbed to the highest rate since 1986. WTI for June delivery declined as much as 47 cents to $101.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange reaching $102.11 at 3:15 p.m. Sydney time. The volume of all futures traded was about 19 percent below the 100-day average. Prices are up 3.8 percent this year. Brent for June settlement was 11 cents lower at $110.08 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

That sums up today’s highlights! Catch up on all the latest news on Facebook, Google+,Twitter and LinkedIn. We hope you have a profitable day on the markets.

 

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Lackluster U.S. Home Sales For March

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:

Main Trading Event Of The Day: USD Existing Home Sales @ 14.00 GMT

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

Lackluster U.S. Existing Home Sales Expected For March

Monthly sales data due today is expected to reveal lackluster rates in March as existing home sales likely fell by 1.0% to a 4.57 million unit rate. Pending home sales have remained weak, with a 0.8% decline in February after a 0.2% decline in January, suggesting limited momentum for completed sales. Total housing inventory was up in February, although the number of homes for sale was still low, indicating that constraints on the supply side are also likely to continue to hold back the sales pace. Analysts are, however, expecting a sharp spring rebound with some strengthening in home sales as an increase in projects and purchases delayed by bad weather proceed.

Is The Long Bull Market Set For A Summer Correction?

As the markets head towards the summer, analysts are becoming increasingly concerned that the long bull market in stocks is set for a correction. The S&P is now nearly 1 percent higher for the year, after rising around 30 percent last year, but it is still down over 1 percent from the all-time high it reached in early April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is off around 1 percent this year, after climbing over 22 percent last year. Market watchers point out that the market could react to any number of factors, such as an escalation of tensions in Ukraine, deleveraging in China or even if the Federal Reserve’s moves to taper its asset purchases prove to be too fast. A correction could be as much as 8 percent over a four to six week period. Earlier this month we experienced a correction in social media stocks with high-flying momentum names in Internet and social media sectors sold off sharply. The Nasdaq index dropped as much as 9.7 percent from its March high, flirting with the official correction level of 10 percent, before retracing some losses. The index is still down nearly 4 percent from its early April high. Many U.S. listed technology stocks entered a bear market, experiencing a loss of at least 20 percent, with more funds flowing into stocks considered defensive or lower risk. If conditions deteriorate, analysts expect the Fed may hold off on tapering which would boost prices again, while noting the correlation between the Fed’s moves to increase its balance sheet by buying assets and gains in stocks is around 90 percent.

Apple Among Top Tech Market-Value Losers As Facebook Posts Gains

The technology selloff has seen off large chunks of value, highlighted by big market cap drops in the sector’s high-fliers led by Apple and Amazon. Apple has shed about $28 billion in market cap since the beginning of the year, a 6% drop as Twitter’s market value has fallen 26%, as its market capitalisation fell by $9 billion. Other big name technology stocks have seen substantial cuts in market value: LinkedIn fell by nearly $5 billion, or a loss of 18% while Yahoo dropped by $4.5 billion. A notable exception in the downward trend is Facebook which has seen its market value grow by nearly $15 billion, or 11%, since the beginning of the year. Investors appear to be turning to more mature tech powerhouses amid the uncertainty, for example, Microsoft, which has seen its market value climb 7% by $22 billion. According to analysts, there is something of a bubble going on in tech, and with those except Apple who have really high multiples, it is easy to see how concerns about an overheated market would cause people to flee high-multiple stocks and to seek refuge in lower-multiple stocks.

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Bull Maket

Obama’s Re-Election Among Best for Stocks

Neither a problematic release of health-care reform nor international outcry over spying allegations are enough to spoil Barack Obama’s triumph in having one of the best stock markets for a re-elected president. Signs of a reverse, however, are making their way on the horizon.

Standard and Poor’s index jumped 24 percent this year recording its third-biggest annual increase after a returning president since the 1930s, trailing the second terms of Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan. The index has advanced 108 percent since Obama became president, adding more than $10 trillion in equity market value.

Obama stock increases have been favoured by a record Federal Reserve stimulus, interest rates around zero percent and a doubling of corporate profits since they dropped to a five-year low in 2008. The rally that started just after Obama took office now exceeds the average length of bull market by almost a year, and valuation have increased 18 percent in 2013. But the future looks grimmer with prospects of the Fed curtailing stimulus, threatening higher borrowing costs, and further gains under the current president are not anticipated.

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