Tag Archives: federal reserve

Oil Barrels old

Should Banks Be Trading Commodities? The Fed Reconsiders

Concerns over potential interest conflicts and market manipulation form the Congress has led the Federal Reserve to a consideration of further restrictions on the trading and storing of physical commodities by banks.

In a meeting yesterday the Fed posed 24 questions for discussion to its members, including some on the dangers of trading and owning commodities (such as oil, gas, and alumunium) by banks who deal with deposits and the potential advantages of imposing more capital standards.

“There has been a substantial increase since 2008 in the amount and types of commodities activities conducted by the firms we supervise,” says the testimony prepared by the Fed’s director of bank supervision, Michael Gibson, for a hearing by a Senate subcommittee today. “Moreover, recent catastrophic events involving physical commodities have increased concerns regarding the ability of companies to mitigate potentially extraordinary tail and other risks.”

The Fed stated it is examining the possibility of further restrictions in order to ensure that bank activities concerning physical commodities are carried out in safe and sound procedures. The central bank on its part said it will look into whether additional rules are needed once the public comment period comes to an end on 15th March.

A list of recent accidents and natural disasters, such as the 2010 explosion at Deepwater Horizon’s drilling rig that cost BP Plc over $42 billion by the end of 2012, have been cited by the Fed as instances of catastrophic occurrences that pose great risks to expose institutions.

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Flying money

Dollar Rises on Anticipation of FOMC Minutes Release

The Fed is playing a central role again this week in the global currency exchange as traders await the release of the minutes of the December FOMC minutes to gauge how the Fed really stands towards the $10-billion stimulus reduction it decided to implement.

The anticipation alone of the release and speculation as to the content of the minutes has sent the U.S. dollar climbing near a five-year five against the Japanese yen. Economists and traders expect that the stimulus reduction will continue a steady course over the next year with gradual decreases after each new FOMC meeting. According to San Fransisco Fed President John Williams, who is not currently a voting member of the committee, they bond-purchasing programme may well end this year.

A forecast by Bloomberg News survey, sees the Fed cutting the stimulus package by $10 billion dollars after each one of the next seven FOMC meetings, thus ending the programme by December 2014.

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Broken Piggy bank

Misjudging the Fed’s Tapering: The Importance of Fundamental Analysis

We always stress the importance of fundamental analysis on our main website and informative videos we produce for our traders and followers, but today’s news illustrates the importance of this aspect of binary options trading in a grand real-life paradigm of immense proportions.

One of the major market moving events of 2013 had been the Fed’s decision to taper its Quantitative Easing programme. The decision, as you probably remember, was preceded my rumours and false alarms and vague language of “more growth” and “stability” in the U.S. economy that kept investors and traders on their speculating toes.

When the decision finally did come last month, at the end of the December FOMC meeting, not everyone expected it, not even the “ol’ boys” of trading. Money manager Bill Gross, known as the “Bond King” misjudged the Fed’s intentions to begin scaling back the economic stimulus in 2013, causing the Pimco Total Return Fund (PTTRX) to decline the most in twenty years.
And the billionaire was not the only to commit the error. The biggest funds at Pacific Investment Management Co. also followed in the same footsteps including in offerings of non-traditional bonds that have been especially designed to protect investors from interest-rate fluctuations.

This is not to argue that you should heed the advice of professional traders and money managers. What we rather like to emphasize is that one should always follow the financial and world evens closely and come to his own conclusions and predicted aided by the advice of experts, but without blindly following them.

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EuroSignNight

Fed Decision to Cut Stimulus Boosts European Stocks

The Federal Reserve’s decision earlier this month to begin tapering its economic stimulus boosted European shares for a second day, sending them well on their way from their biggest weekly advance since April. U.S. stock-index futures and Asian shares show little movement.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. advised buying shares of Telenet Group Holding NV sending the stock on 2.5 percent jump. BAE Sysptems Plc lost 3.6 percent following the announcement that the United Arab Emirates ended talks to purchase its combat planes.

“European equities are set to edge higher on the open,” wrote Jonathan Sudaria, a trader at Capital Spreads in London, in an e-mail. “The post FOMC rally still has some momentum but only a muted move higher is expected today.”

After the Fed announced on Wednesday that it would decrease the amount of its economic stimulus by $20 billion, the Stoxx 600 gained 1.7 percent yesterday, recording its greatest two-day gain since June.

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GoldCoins

Gold Pares Weekly Loss But Set For Annual Drop

The Federal Reserve’s decision earlier this week to start cutting back on stimulus helped gold gain some of the ground it lost after closing at its lowest level since 2010. Accoridng to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., however, bullion’s downwards movement has not come to an end as the precious metal is set for its biggest annual decline since 1981.

The turbulent economic conditions around the globe that marked 2013 have diminished investors faith in gold as a store of value, sending it towards its first annual decline since 2000. On 18th December, the Fed decided to finally begin reducing its bond-buying programme from $85 billion to $75 billion. The decision pushed U.S. equities to record highs, while exchange-traded products that are backed by gold lost about $73 billion this year and mining companies dropped at least $26 billion.

Goldman’s head of commodities research in New York, Jeffrey Currie, said that “gold is now likely to grind lower throughout 2014. Much of the expected price decline has been priced in as opposed to a more gentle process as the Fed backs away from QE. When the gold market sees these events, it usually tries to price it in immediately.”

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BrokerPhone

Indices Hit Record Highs on Soaring Stocks

Benchmark indices hit record highs as stocks rallied yesterday, while Treasuries slipped, after the Federal Reserved announced it had gained sufficient confidence in the job market to begin tapering, promising to keep interest rates low. Both the U.S. dollar and commodities gained on the market.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) climbed 1.7 percent, its biggest advance in 8 weeks, and the Dow Jones Average (INDU) surged 292.71 points. The U.S. equity volatility benchmark gauge lost the most since October. The dollar skyrocketed to a five-year high against the yen and gained against most of its major peers.

Equities have been taking hits on all sides since May, when Bernanke announce that a tapering programmed would likely start this year. The S&P 500 plunged 5.8 percent in the period from 21st May through 24th June. After the Fed shocked the markets with its decision not to taper in September, the index regained lost points and set new highs.

The index had lost 1.5 percent from its last record reached on 9th December, on the speculation that improving U.S. economic data would prove sufficient for tapering to begin. The S&P has climbed a total of 27 percent this year, the mist since a 1997 surge of 31 percent.

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Mexican Pesos

Mexican Peso Drops Most On Fed Tapering Speculatiosns

Speculations that the Federal Reserve will put a tapering programme for its stimulus in place at the end of its meeting tomorrow have caused drops on various currencies, but the most steep one among the world’s major currencies was seen in the Mexican peso.

The peso lost 0.4 percent against the U.S. dollar, while profits on fixed-rate peso bonds that will mature in 2042 gained 4 points or 0.04 percent. The 0.4 percent increase the peso had last week after the Mexican congress passed a bill ending the state oil monopoly has only short-lived.

A survey conducted by Bloomberg, showed that 34 percent of economists expect the Fed to begin curbing its monthly $85-billion bond-purchasing programme at its meeting on 17th-18th December, compared to only 17 percent in a poll held on 8th November.

Yesterday data showed that industrial production in the U.S. expanded 1.1 percent in November, compared to a revised 0.1 percent in the previous month that had originally been reported as a decrease, according to a report from the Fed today. Economists surveyed earlier had expected a 0.6 percent increase. The index of industrial production overall rose to 101.3, for the first time surpassing the levels it held in 2007 before the recession hit.

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GoldCoins

Gold Loses Most Buying Power In Decades

Gold’s security no longer seems to appeal to investors as it once did as gold-backed products that are exchanged on the markets took their greatest hit in the decade-long history of the securities, reflecting the greatest price drop in 32 years.

This years marks the first annual decrease of ETPs since the funds began trading in 2003, with holdings in the 14 largest products plummeting 31 percent. The value of assets has cumulatively lost $69.5 billion with prices declining the most since 1981. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect another 311 tons to be withdrawn next year.

Contrary to current conditions, last year’s ETP investments hit a record $148 billion and assisted in holding up the bull market that increased prices more that sixfold since 2001. The precipitous drop indicates that investors no longer consider gold to be the preserver of wealth they once did as inflation failed did not speed up as expected. Even John Paulson, the largest investor in the biggest ETP said he wouldn’t be buying any more last month.

According to Robin Bhar, who has been ranked by Bloomberg as the most-accurate forecaster for precious metals over the last 8 quarter and works for Societe General SA from London, “all the bullish factors we had pushing gold higher in the last 12 years are now going into reverse.” His prediction for next year? “There will be more ETF selling in 2014 as the price goes lower.”

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BullDown

EU and US Indices Drop in Anticipation of Fed Meeting

The two-day Federal Reserved meeting scheduled for this month begins tomorrow and its advent has driven European and U.S. equity futures down along with silver. A slower-than-anticipated growth in Chinese manufacturing has sent Asian stocks near a three-month low as the yen strengthened.

Euro Stoxx 50 Index futures dropped 0.2 percent while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index contracts slipped 0.4 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.6 percent and Japan’s Topix lost 1.3 percent as the yen gained against all 16 of its major trading peers. Gold and silver declined by at least 0.2 percent and natural gas lost 1.4 percent. Only Brent cruse gained 0.4 percent with rebels refusing to open the ports of Libya.

With the U.S. economy and the job market showing signs of improvement and following the bipartisan budget passed by lawmakers, economists foresee a greater possibility that the Fed will start tapering stimulus soon. Today’s reports may show increased manufacturing in both the U.S. and the euro region.

THe market has been anticipating the tapering for a while down and some consider that the Chinese economy will drop its pace even more, reaching more sustainable levels.

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GoldBalance

Gold Breaks Its Fall Despite Forecasts of Stimulus Tapering

Speculation that the Federal Reserve may decrease its economic stimulus as early as next week didn’t seem to be doing gold any favours; however, the safe-heaven’s decline halted after just two days as the five-month low prices may be luring investors back towards it.

Bullion to be delivered immediately increased as much as 0.4 percent in Singapore today, while yesterday prices had fallen 2.1 percent, the most since 2nd December. When data last week came in positive for U.S. payrolls in November, gold touched $1,210.61 on 6th December, the lowest since 5th July.

The precious metal is set for its first annual lost in 13 years with a decline of 27 percent this year as investors anticipate Fed cuts on improving U.S. economy. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for next week, 17-18 December, and 34 percent of the economist that participated in a Bloomberg survey expect the cuts to begin next month. On a poll conducted on the 8th November, only 17 percent thought so.

Gold for February delivery increased 0.3 percent after its greatest fall in 10 weeks yesterday. The volume of trading remained at similar levels to the 100-day average

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