Tag Archives: GDP data

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Luck Of The Irish? Things Can Only Get Better…

Last year as a whole, Ireland was one of the best performing stock markets in the world. Things are getting better, yet even after this performance there are still plenty of problems and things are still pretty grim for most people. But from an investor’s point of view, it’s important to look at the overall direction, not just the absolute figures. Markets anticipate change – if you buy when everything looks rosy, the chances are you’ve missed the best gains and are getting in just in time for a fall.

One of the most visible signs of a recovery is that property prices are continuing to rise after five consecutive years of falls. Not surprisingly, the most dramatic rise has been in Dublin, where prices have surged more than 15% in the past year. National prices are up by more than 6%. The construction industry is recovering along with house prices. The latest GDP data shows that the sector grew by 2.2% in the last quarter alone. Confidence among managers in the sector is high, too. It’s not just the construction business. Firms in other industries are also optimistic. Irish capital investment shot up by 10.9% in the past quarter. It shows that companies are confident enough to put their cash to use.

Ireland is also slowly regaining control over its national finances. Having exited the bailout that saved it from national bankruptcy, it doesn’t have to rely on support from the Troika anymore giving it leeway to take modest measures to boost the economy, such as targeted tax cuts. Dublin expects to run a ‘primary surplus’ as early this year meaning the government will take in more money than it spends on everything excluding interest payments.

Ireland still has big problems. GDP is still well below the 2007 peak, deflation is a threat, and unemployment is still high but the overall signs are looking good. Tough economic measures are still needed for sure…together with a little luck of the Irish!

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Will Slump in Euro Zone Economy Prove Draghi’s Rate Cut Right?

Investors turn to their attention to the euro zone this week, as they await the release of growth data to gauge the strength of European economy as the initial signs of recovery appear to have slowed down, supporting Mario Draghi’s case to cut interest rates in an attempt to boost the economy.

The third quarter is expected to have recorded a mere 0.1 percent rise in gross domestic product in analyst’s projections. In the hours leading to the release of the report on 14th November, economists predict that data from Germany, France and Italy will already begin to indicate the growth halt.

Negative data would confirm that recovery is diminishing after a second-quarter jump of 0.3 percent that signalled the end of the region’s longest recession. The data are released one week after the European Central Bank president mentioned that the risk of “prolonged” period of low inflation as he announced the surprised rate cut to 0.25 percent.

The GDP data for the 17-nation euro area will be released by the European Union’s statistic office in Luxembourg at 11 a.m. on 14th November in a long series of European data publications. The day opens with France’s report at 7:30 a.m. in Paris, where economists expect economy to have staled.

Just last week, on 8th November, France was downgraded to AA by Startd and Poor’s, which cited that the current policies of President Francois Hollande’s government are “unlikely to substantially raise France’s medium-term growth prospects.”

Italian data, released in Rome at 10 a.m. on the same day, are expected to show a ninth straight quarter of losses. Antonio Golini, acting chairman of Istat, the Italian national statistics office, told lawmakers on 29th October that the economy shrank in the three months through September, predicting a 1.8 percent drop in GDP for the year.

More optimistic outlooks anticipate that enough momentum elsewhere in the currency bloc to accelerate growth toward the end of the year despite the recession in the region’s second- and third-biggest economies.

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