Tag Archives: Germany

No End in Sight for Eurozone Recession

No End in Sight for Eurozone Recession

The ailing Eurozone is now officially in its longest ever recession, once again prompting speculations about the single currency’s future. Signs of crisis are clearly visible as nine out of 17 eurozone nations are in recession with Francois Hollande’s France joining the list of economic underachievers.

The GDP of 17 eurozone countries shrank by 0.2 per cent in the beginning of 2013. The European powerhouse Germany only grew by 0.1 per cent in the first quarter while France’s economy shrank by 0.2 per cent for the second quarter in a row. The country’s unemployment rate is expected to rise from the current 10.6 per cent. President Hollande is now the most unpopular president in French history, even surpassing his predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy who was widely disliked.

The shoddy data was followed by Pew Research Centre’s report according to which public support for the European Union fell from 60 per cent to 45 per cent. Pew’s research confirmed the perilous situation of the European project which is already being buried in many European countries. For instance, Spain’s dire situation is likely to continue and even worsen while the austerity policies enacted by many nations do not seem to work or stimulate growth.

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Portugal, Ireland to Avoid Disaster

Portugal, Ireland to Avoid Disaster

Portugal and Ireland, two debt-ridden Eurozone economies will likely receive more time to repay their loans after a meeting between euro ministers in Dublin on Friday. The news was welcomed by both countries which have struggled tremendously with ailing recoveries after massive debt-crises. Both countries look to receive an additional seven years to pay back their debts and make a healthy and robust return to the financial markets.

The finance ministers would be wise to discuss the potentially catastrophic consequences of the bloated and bigger-than-expected Cyprus bailout package which could derail the small island nation and even lead to mass exodus. Such worries became more realistic after ti was rumored that Cyprus needs to cough up an additional 6 billion euros to cover the expenses thus increasing the total amount to 23 billion euros. The figure is higher than the size of the whole Cypriot economy.

 

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Bailout Friday

Bailout Friday

Eurozone ministers meet in Dublin on Friday to discuss Cyprus bailout and the possibility of extending rescue package repayment dates for Ireland and Portugal. The first item on the agenda is Cyprus as ministers are readying for heated deliberations over the bailout conditions in exchange for the 10bn euros from the Eurozone and the International Monetary Fund. Nicosia is eagerly waiting for the first payment of 75 million euros, due in May, to pay for public sector wages. Discussions in Dublin will also revolve around the recent estimate according to which the restructuring of Cypriot banks will throw the country into a deep recession for at least two years.

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Springtime for Hollande?

Springtime for Hollande?

The French president Francois Hollande’s arguably disastrous policies have put France in the same category of failing economies as Greece, Spain and Italy. Recent reports from Brussels suggest that France is on a collision course with Germany and other countries that advocate for fiscal responsibility. A report released by the European Commission on Wednesday used harsh language to describe France’s financial situation.

“France’s public sector indebtedness represents a vulnerability, not only for the country itself, but also for the euro area as a whole,” said the EC report.

The report also stated that “the resilience of the country to external shocks is diminishing and its medium-term growth prospects are increasingly hampered by longstanding imbalances.”

EC went as far as to threaten France with sanctions if it fails to change course. The two protagonists in the unravelling Eurozone play, Germany’s Angela Merkel and Hollande have been at odds since Hollande was elected president. Their economic policies and visions differ fundamentally, as Merkel has emphasised fiscal responsibility, while Hollande has sworn in the name of big government policies to revive the French economy. If one is to look at all the relevant variables measuring a country’s economic health, Merkel has succeeded while Hollande – who is now extremely unpopular in France – is heading towards a massive failure.

 

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Spain Continues to Disappoint

Spain Continues to Disappoint

Reports this morning suggest that Spain is in the throes of an ever-deepening financial crisis. The country’s industrial production took another dive, falling by 6.5 per cent in February compared to the corresponding month in 2012. Earlier this morning, during a speech to the country’s parliament, Spain’s Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy appealed the eurozone for solidarity. He asked that all countries take part in attempts to bring the region back from the verge of an economic abyss. Meanwhile, data from Italy and Spain also looked weak, while France’s industrial production only dropped by 2.8 per cent year-on-year in February.

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Germans Committed to the Euro

Germans Committed to the Euro

A poll released on Tuesday found that an overwhelming majority of Germans oppose a return to the Deutschmark. A whopping 69 per cent of the respondents answered in the affirmative when asked if they would like to stay in the euro, while only 27 per cent favoured exiting the euro and returning to the old Deutschemark. The results indicate that Germany’s euroskeptics have, led by Bernd Shucke, have very little support. Apparently the country’s robust and consistently well-performing economy swayed the Germans that the single currency is a worthy experiment. Most analysts concede that the on-going fiscal crisis shaking the Eurozone caused great worry among Germans, but the common perception in the country confirms the results of the survey: for Germany, the euro’s benefits outweigh its costs.

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In Austerity We Trust

In Austerity We Trust

Reuters reported on Tuesday that a German parliamentarian - closely associated with Chancellor Angela Merkel – wants to see more cooperation between triple-A countries Netherlands, Finland and Germany. The parliamentarian in question, Hans Michelbach from the Christian Social Union (CSU) said that the three countries should stand together to strengthen the ailing currency union. Micelbach’s comments came during fierce speculation over the euro’s future.

The highly controversial Cyprus bailout, which Micelbach seemed to praise, raised questions about the tangibility of the currency union, especially in the face of growing discrepancies between the zone’s northern and southern members.

The parliamentarian used some tough language to describe France and Italy by referring to the European giants as “problem children”, reports say. He affirmed Germany’s commitment to its two natural partners, but lamented France’s president Francois Hollande for his socialist experiments and argued that such policies could lead to serious problems.

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The Finnish Euro Dance

The Finnish Euro Dance

News reports on Tuesday suggested that Finland, one of the few eurozone countries with a triple-A credit rating, was suspected of having been behind the unprecedentedly severe rescue package conditions for Cyprus. During past bailout negotiations, Finland wanted to establish itself as the responsible adult in the room. Unlike many southern European countries with mismanaged economies, Finland learned the lessons of its banking crisis and the subsequent recession 20 years ago.

Finland’s impatience in the face of sloppy fiscal policies prompted analysts to speculate about the country’s future in the eurozone. For instance, Nouriel Roubini, one of the most respected prognosticators of global economic trends, has argued that Finland will eventually be the first country to leave the single currency.

During the latest negotiations between IMF, EMU and Cyprus, Finland was reported to have been responsible for the levy tax obliging Cypriots to pay up to 10 per cent of their savings to foot the costs of the rescue package. Germany is often erroneously viewed as being uncompromising in its bailout demands, but in the eyes of Europe’s debt-ridden economies, Finland is the bad cop in the room.

Yet, Finland has rarely succeeded in its demands as the Greek and Spanish bailouts showed. Tough posturing is meant for domestic consumption to keep the vociferous opposition at bay. The opposition argues - perhaps rightly so - that Finland is constantly paying for other countries mistakes.

The Finnish euro bailout dance usually starts with the Finance Minister Jutta Urpilainen and Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen rejecting reports that a given Mediterranean country is in need of a massive bailout. When the bailout becomes a reality, both Katainen and Urpilainen attempt to calm the public by proclaiming that Finland will not give a cent unless it receives loan guarantees. After it becomes clear that other eurozone countries do not subscribe to Finland’s demands, the bailout passes without guarantees and Urpilainen and Katainen stand in front of the Finnish media explaining that harmonious cooperation comes with an occasional responsibility to compromise.

Henry Clay once said that a good compromise leaves both sides unhappy. In Finland’s case, only the Finnish taxpayer is left unhappy.

If past bailouts are any indication, Cyprus will get its bailout, irrespective of Finland’s posturing. The northern European country can leave the euro and incur the wrath of the eurocrats or stay and continue its increasingly superfluous dance. Either of these choices will have serious consequences for Finland and the eurozone.

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