Tag Archives: U.S. retail sales

Will The Bank Of England Inflation Report Move Sterling?

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:

Main Trading Event Of The Day: U.K. BOE Inflation Report @ 09.30 & U.S. PPI @ 12.30 GMT

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

Will The Bank Of England Inflation Report Move Sterling?

The GBP has had a favourable performance over the past year, but with the Bank of England’s inflation report due today, this could be set to change. Investors will be listening to BoE Governor Mark Carney closely for any indications of an interest rate hike this year against a backdrop of a strengthening British economy. Traders will be focusing on the British pound as the Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation Report is one of the most important event risks this week. The big question is whether the economic landscape has changed enough for the central bank to take a more active approach to monetary policy.

After years of sluggish growth following the 2008 financial crisis, the U.K. economy has finally landed on its feet and is set to clock up a healthy 3 percent growth rate this year. However, house prices remain a concern, with a 10 percent surge over the past year raising fears of a bubble. As the economy recovers, many industry watchers have speculated that the central bank could raise interest rates from all-time lows of 0.5 percent in a bid to offset inflation. Retail sales growth also remains weak while consumer price growth slowed to 1.6 percent in March from 1.7 percent in February, dampening rate hike expectations.

Nevertheless, analysts remained convinced that the BoE inflation report could give the pound a boost and that it is due a little bounce having lost some ground recently. Major policy changes are not expected to come out of the BoE’s inflation report, with Carney likely to retain an optimistic outlook on the U.K. recovery while acknowledging spare capacity in the economy.

U.S. Retail Sales Slow, But Economic Growth On Track to Accelerate

U.S. retail sales slowed down in April after strong gains in the previous two months but the news appears to have done little to change views that the economy was poised for faster growth this quarter. Retail sales edged up 0.1 percent last month, held back by declines in some sectors including furniture and electronics, possibly due to consumers being more cautious in their spending habits as they await confirmation that the economy is, in fact, poised to accelerate. Retail sales, which account for a third of consumer spending, rose 1.5 percent in March, the biggest gain in four years. That followed a healthy increase in February, reflecting the release of pent-up demand after the severe winter. Economists, who had forecast sales advancing 0.4 percent last month, said a late Easter could have caused difficulties smoothing the data for seasonal fluctuations, causing the sharp swing from March to April. Prices for U.S. Treasury debt rose on the data, while the dollar gained against a basket of currencies. U.S. stocks rose marginally, with the Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor’s 500 index both inching to record levels. Data such as employment as well as manufacturing and services industries surveys have suggested the economy regained strength early in the second quarter.

U.S. Inflation Data Awaited As Dollar Bulls Await Increase In Consumer Prices

Dollar bulls are expecting U.S. data this week will show consumer prices picked up last month, bringing inflation closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent threshold it has set for considering a rate hike. The U.S. dollar index recovered from a 20-month low of 78.906 set last Thursday after European Central Bank head Mario Draghi warned that the euro’s strength was a serious concern and that the ECB was comfortable with taking more action to support economic growth and raise inflation at its June meeting. The strength of this week’s scheduled U.S. data releases which include the closely-watched April consumer price index (CPI) on Thursday and the bearing it has on Fed rate expectations will decide whether the dollar continues its turnaround. Consensus forecasts show April’s core CPI up 1.7 percent from a year earlier, unchanged from the prior month’s reading. Sentiment regarding whether the dollar will extend gains or weakens appears to be evenly split between dollar bulls and bears. Dollar bears maintain inflation remains low and highlight the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation - the price index for personal consumption expenditures - which has run below 2 percent for 23 consecutive months. Fed Chair Janet Yellen warned last week about the risks posed to the recovery from the U.S. housing market slowdown, suggesting that the Fed may be in no hurry to raise rates.

That sums up today’s highlights! Keep posted with all the latest news and analyst updates via our Facebook, Twitter, Google+ and LinkedIn pages.

We hope you have a profitable day on the markets!

U.S. Retail Sales Likely To Climb; Dollar Touches One-Week High

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:

Main Trading Event Of The Day: U.S. Core Retail Sales @ 12.30 GMT

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

U.S. Retail Sales Likely To Climb; Dollar Touches One-Week High Vs Yen

Today’s reports are likely to show that retail sales probably climbed 0.4 percent in April, following a 1.2 percent gain in March, although not at March’s rapid pace. The spike in March reflected the return of warmer weather after the cold winter. In April, auto dealers offered heavy discounts and sold slightly fewer cars which may suppress the headline number. Auto purchases account for about 25% of overall retail sales. However, spending in other categories appeared to be steady. Retail sales are a good indicator of how the economy is doing and account for about one-third of what consumers spend, rising sharply when U.S. growth accelerates. While sales have slowed in each of the past two years, economists expect the recent rebound in hiring and economic growth to encourage consumers to spend more. The retail report will be issued @ 12.30 GMT.

The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, rose to the highest level in a week versus the yen before today’s U.S. retail sales data. The dollar traded near the strongest in a month against the euro as improving U.S. economic data bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to continue tapering stimulus, moving closer to the first interest-rate increase since 2006. The yen declined against most of its major peers as Japanese stocks rose. The dollar rose 0.1 percent to 102.25 yen as of 12:50 p.m. yesterday, after earlier touching 102.24, the most since May 5. It was unchanged at $1.3757 per euro, after reaching $1.3745 on May 9, the strongest since April 8. The yen fell 0.1 percent to 140.66 against the Euro.

U.S. Posts Smaller Budget Surplus In April Than Forecast

U.S. budget data yesterday revealed a smaller budget surplus in April than projected as spending increased at more than twice the pace of tax receipts. Revenue exceeded spending by $106.9 billion last month, compared with a $112.9 billion surplus a year before. The median estimate was for a $114 billion surplus. So far this fiscal year, which began Oct. 1, the U.S is running a budget shortfall that’s about 37 percent smaller than it was a year earlier and was the narrowest at the seven-month mark since 2008. There was a little more growth in spending than would have been anticipated. The economy is starting to recover at a fairly decent pace, excluding the first-quarter slowdown, but given that the outlook is positive for growth this year, continued lower deficits can be expected.

Indian Rupee Having One Of The Best Runs In 2014

India’s economy ended 2013 growing at the slowest rate in a decade and now faces the fastest inflation rate of all the emerging markets at around 8 percent. Fears of the Federal Reserve scaling back its bond purchases sent the Indian rupee plunging to a record low late last year and had strategists predicting more declines this year on worries about sharp outflows from emerging markets. Instead, the currency has strengthened nearly 4 percent in 2014, with more strategists changing course and jumping on the bullish bandwagon. The ongoing election and hopes for new leadership are an important part of the sentiment reversal. Investors are also confident in the leadership at India’s central bank with Raghuram Rajan, former International Monetary Fund chief economist at the helm. With his international and investor credibility, Rajan has been on a mission to fight inflation, raising interest rates 75 basis points to 8 percent. Those higher rates have attracted foreign money in search of yield. Money has continued to flow into India and the rupee, the global environment is EM-friendly and with central bank credibility in good shape, the INR continues to ride a global risk-friendly wave.

That sums up today’s highlights! Remember to keep in touch with us for all your important trading news and information. We’re always on Facebook, Twitter, Google+ and Twitter! We hope you have a profitable day on the markets.

U.S Retail Sales Increase Anticipated

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:

Main Trading Event Of The Day: US Core Retail Sales @ 12.30 GMT

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

U.S Retail Sales Increase Anticipated

Weekly surveys have suggested some improvement during the month, alongside firm consumer confidence, with sales at U.S. retailers jumping 0.9 percent in March, the biggest gain since September 2012, according to Bloomberg. An increase of 0.5% in retail sales excluding autos is forecast. Analysts say that the severe winter weather depressed consumer spending in recent months and that pent-up demand has been slow to show up in the data.

Stocks Decline Amid Wall St Gloom & Ukraine Tensions

Asian shares declined early today after a gloomy week on Wall Street and tensions in Ukraine sapped investors’ appetite for risk, which helped underpin the safe-haven yen. The glum sentiment is set to carry through to Europe with Britain’s FTSE 100 expected to open about 0.6 percent lower, Germany’s DAX to start down 0.9 percent, and France’s CAC 40 off 0.8 percent. Ukraine gave pro-Russian separatists a Monday morning deadline to disarm or face a “full-scale anti-terrorist operation” by its armed forces, raising the risk of a military confrontation with Moscow. European Union foreign ministers will hold talks later on Monday about tougher sanctions against Russia. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 0.5 percent, pulling further away from five-month highs hit on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei stock average briefly turned positive during Friday’s session, but ended down 0.4 percent at a six-month closing low. The Nikkei stumbled 7.3 percent last week, its biggest weekly fall since March 2011. The Nasdaq closed below the 4,000 mark for the first time since early February as investors bailed out of high-flying technology and biotech shares. Investors are wary that Wall Street’s rout may continue.

Data Influx From China Awaited

Important data from China, the world’s second-largest economy is likely to be a key focus for market players this week, with first-quarter growth domestic product (GDP), March retail sales, industrial output and fixed asset investment (FAI) set to be released on Wednesday. GDP is expected to rise 7.3 percent, which would mark China’s slowest pace of growth since 2009 and come in well below the 7.7 percent reading in the final quarter of 2013. However, the government is unlikely to be taking any short-term easing measures to combat economic volatility as it did in 2009 since they are less efficient than natural market forces in boosting growth.

That sums up today’s highlights! Stay in touch with us throughout the day for up-to-date news and important trading information. You can find us on Facebook, Twitter, Google+ and LinkedIn.

We hope you have a profitable day on the markets.

U.S. Weather: Does It Really Affect Stocks?

There’s no disputing the fact that the U.S. weather conditions have dominated the press lately. With the coldest January in two decades, the weather has impacted on many areas from the housing markets to the retail sector and was severe enough to affect the world stock markets and multiple tradable assets. Prior to the release of data from the second quarter, it will be difficult to ascertain the exact effect of the weather on the stock markets, however, as Banc De Binary’s Oren Laurent points out, there are trading opportunities to be had both for the long-term and short-term investor. In particular, binary options traders who typically trade with shorter expiry times are benefiting from the massive snowfall. This is a great time to ride the storm! Read more…

Just A Minute!

Welcome to Monday’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary what’s happening in the markets:

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

Market Overview; U.S. Retail Sales Awaited

Although there is a fairly quiet economic calendar today, there are some important economic reports to watch for this week including Thursday’s retail sales. This is expected to be flat, once again, probably down to the harsh winter conditions. There was a big turnaround in stocks at the end of the week, giving their best weekly performance this year. A rally that started Thursday continued overnight and took off even more after the January jobs report. It was a mixed bag with a weak, 113,000 nonfarm payrolls. But drops in the unemployment rate, to 6.6 percent, and in the number of long-term unemployed were regarded as positives. The S&P 500 ended the week at 1,797, up 0.8 percent, but still down 2.2 percent since the start of the year. Stocks rallied Friday as emerging markets were calmer and in the main, moved higher. The Fed’s tapering and concerns that China is weakening sent emerging currencies spiraling lower. Traders are debating whether the worst of the selloff is over, but many said the markets will have to hear from Yellen before the path becomes clearer.

Dollar Gains Before Yellen Testimony; Gold Extends Gains On Weak U.S. Jobs Data

The U.S. dollar gained to the highest level in over a week against the yen as investors bet the Federal Reserve will carry out a reduction in stimulus before Janet Yellen speaks to U.S. lawmakers tomorrow. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index halted a five-day slide, even after a Feb. 7 report showed employment growth last month in the world’s biggest economy was less than analysts expected. The dollar traded at 102.40 yen as of 2:36 p.m. in Tokyo from 102.30 on Feb 7, after touching 102.64, the strongest since Jan. 31. It added 0.1 percent to $1.3623 per euro after falling 1.1 percent last week. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major counterparts, added 0.1 percent to 1,024.56, after weakening every day since Jan. 31.

Gold meanwhile, has edged higher on speculation that the Federal Reserve would slow the pace of its stimulus tapering after a weak U.S. jobs report raised questions over the state of economic recovery. Some analysts said the gains may not last as the labour market weakness could be due to weather-related issues. There is a bearish view on gold and analysts expect prices to drop to $1,150 by the end of the year.

China’s Alipay Now World’s No. 1 Online Payment System

Alipay, China’s leading online payment system owned by e-commerce giant Alibaba Group has overtaken Ebay’s PayPal to become the world’s top mobile-payment service, with a total volume of $150 billion in 2013. Over 100 million registered mobile users have completed more than 2.78 billion transactions on Alipay Wallet. The total volume of Alipay’s mobile payments has surged past 900 billion yuan, or $150 billion, surpassing the combined volume of U.S.-based rivals PayPal and privately held Square Inc. which was around $50 billion last year. In addition, during the recent seven-day Chinese New Year holiday, when banks were closed, Alipay Wallet users made over 100 million transactions on their phones, accounting for 52% of total online payment deals. Part of this involved the Chinese tradition of gifting money during the holiday to family and friends, with such gifts accounting for 200 million yuan in transactions.

Source: Bloomberg

That sums up Monday’s highlights! We wish you a great start to the week and hope you have a profitable day on the markets.

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