US NON-FARM PAYROLLS - Weekly Report 0-05/09

A quick reminder that there were better-than-expected second-quarter GDP, Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence results out of the US last week. As any trader will tell you, past results are no indicator of future performance, but what we’re looking for in the US are some strong signals that the Fed will raise interest rates on the back of an economic recovery.

On Monday, September 1st, the new week and trading month launches with important data for the Eurozone – that is Germany’s second quarter GDP. Europe’s recovery continues to be anaemic, so the market is watching for any signs of weakness in the EU’s largest economy. Previously, Germany’s GDP was reported at 0.7 percent.

Tuesday the 2nd has high-impact market events in Australia, Switzerland and the US. At 04.30, Australia releases its interest rate decision - previously at 2.5 percent. At 05.45, Switzerland’s GDP for the second quarter is announced, and was previously reported at a relatively robust two percent. Finally, at 14.00, the US releases the ISM Manufacturing PMI report for August, which was previously at the level of 57.1.

On Wednesday the 3rd, prepare for a busy trading day that starts at an eye-watering 1.30 am in the morning, as Australia releases its second-quarter GDP results. On a quarterly basis, the previous result was 1.1 percent - and on an annual basis, it was 3.5 percent. Bank of Canada is the next highlight on Wednesday, with its interest rate decision set for release at 14.00. A note that the previous benchmark was one percent. The announcement is followed by the usual monetary policy statement.

Thursday the 4th is chock-full of monetary policy makers decisions, as the UK announces its interest rate decision and asset purchase budget at 11am. Previously, the key interest rate was 0.5 percent, and there is some speculation that the central bank will make a move to raise interest rates when there is significant economic recovery in the UK. At 11.45, the European Central Bank announces its interest rate decision and follows up with a press conference at 12.30. Sandwiched between the ECB’s rate decision and conference is the US’ ADP Employment Change for August, previously reported at 218K. At 14.00, the US releases ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for August, previously reported at 58.7.

Finally, on Friday September 5th, trading opportunities can be found in the market-moving events in the US, EU and Canada. At 09.00, the EU releases Q2 GDP data on an annual basis, previously reported at 0.9 percent. At 12.30, the US announces its Non-Farm Payrolls figure, which usually impacts the USD and Gold. Previously, the NFP figure was at 209K. The US’ August Unemployment Rate is released at the same time, and was previously reported at 6.2 percent. Canada releases its Unemployment Rate at 12.30, previously reported at 7 percent. Also at 12.30, Canada announces its Net Change in Employment data for August, previously at 0.2K.