Today’s event covers private sector job creation in the form of the ADP Payroll report. This indicator is used as a precursor for events to come in the larger NFP report on Friday. The correlation between ADP Payrolls and ISM Manufacturing PMI data has been inconsistent. However, the PMI report yesterday highlighted that the employment is still contracting in the Manufacturing sector, albeit at a slower pace. Despite this, there have been improvements in personal income which rose 0.5% in January. This would suggest U.S. workers are in a better position financially, indicating a strengthening labour market.
Event:
ADP Payrolls
Today 13:15 GMT
Investor Notes:
- February’s private payroll report is expected to show a fall in private sector job creation with an estimated 185,000 new jobs compared with 205,000 in January.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations rising to 49.5 in February from an expected 48.5; however it does confirm the manufacturing sector is still in contraction.
- The CB Consumer Confidence survey fell from 97.8 in January to 92.2 in February as consumers turned more pessimistic about job prospects in the coming months.
- Unemployment claims fell flat last week at 272,000 new claims, yet rose by 10,000 claims when compared with the previous week.
