At this point in its history, China is experiencing extensive modernization. Where villages and farms once stood, cities and roads are being built. While education was once a luxury, it is quickly becoming a necessity. And the transformation is not yet complete.
You’ve probably heard it said before at dinner tables that: “China is quickly becoming the world’s number one super-power.” Meanwhile, it seems that every day there is more news about China buying up real estate in foreign countries (like a Waldorf Astoria Hotel), signing long-term trade deals with Russia, and growing economically at a rapid pace.
But, does China really have what it takes to overcome America as the world’s number one super-power? Below are three reasons that point to “yes,” and three that point to “no.”
Yes
1) China is the world’ fastest growing economy.
From 1989 until 2014, the Gross Domestic Product (=total value of goods and services) of China has been growing at an annual rate of 9.10%. That growth rate is significantly higher than any other country on earth.
2) In the last two years, China has led the world in exports.
Like any business, a country has to sell it goods and services to customers from abroad in order to earn more wealth. It was in 2012that China first surpassed the U.S. as the world’s number one exporter. In 2013, China continued to surpass the U.S., exporting $2.2 trillion, while the U.S. came in second, exporting $1.6 trillion.
3) As the world’s most populous country, all that’s left is industrialization.
When economists refer to the potential greatness of China, they are usually referring to their massive population which could eventually join the modern workforce. Of the world’s 7.1 billion citizens, over 1 billion live in China, and when you multiply the population by their level of expertise you have the potential for the world’s most massive and successful economy.
No
1) China’s “one-child” policy could mean a smaller workforce in the coming decades.
In 1979, China’s government implemented a “one-child” policy which meant that couples were only allowed to have one child, or suffer heavy fines. Analysts say that by 2050, citizens over 65 could equal 25% of the population (which would mean less people contributing to the economy).
2) America’s GDP is still double the size of China’s.
At $17 trillion, America’s GDP still greatly exceeds China’s GDP of $9.24 trillion. These numbers reflects the overall size of the economies, and the standard of living of the two countries. Considering that America’s population is 316 million, the opportunity for U.S. inhabitants cannot be matched by China.
3) America’s army is whole lot bigger.
The super-powers of history have always had the element of having the most powerful military on the globe. Today, the U.S. spends $612 billion a year on its military. Meanwhile, China reports that it spends $80 billion a year, while the U.S. Army estimates that China spends $150 billion a year on its military.
